Did the GOP Steal the Wisconsin Recall Elections? A True Vote Analysis

Richard Charnin

Aug. 11, 2011

In a pre-election post, I indicated that only election fraud could keep the Democrats from winning three of the six GOP recall elections. http://richardcharnin.com/WisconsinRecallElectionProjections.htm

They won two. This post-election analysis indicates that they did much better than that. They may very well have won all six.

The Democrats were highly motivated to win the Senate based on Walker policies, but the GOP had the advantage of massive funding – especially in District 8. The problem is to determine the voter turnout rates and voter preferences required to match the recorded vote shares.

The analysis is based on the Wisconsin Recall True Vote Model .

  In any election, there are two key factors: voter turnout and voter preference. We know how many voters returned from the previous election (as a percentage). But we must estimate the percentage mix of returning Democrats and Republicans. The number of new voters is just the difference between total votes cast in the current election and returning voters. In the recall analysis, we will assume that new voters were split equally between the Democrats and the Republicans.

  Voter mix is the percentage of returning and new voters to the total vote. For example, assume that in a precinct there are 1000 voters (480 returning Obama, 460 returning McCain voters, and 60 new voters). Then the voter turnout mix is 48% Obama, 46% McCain and 6% new). Let’s calculate the Democratic vote share assuming that he/she wins 95% of Obama voters, 5% of McCain voters and 50% of new voters.

  Democratic share = Dem mix * Dem % of returning Obama voters + GOP mix * Dem % of returning McCain voters + New voter mix * Dem % of New voters

Democratic share = .48*.95 + .46*.05+ .06*.50 = .456 + .023 + .030 = 50.9%.

  In mathematical terms, vote share is a function of voter turnout mix and voter preference: Vote share = f (turnout mix, preference)

  Obama won each of the six districts and had a 53.0-45.7% total margin. Therefore assuming a) an equal percentage turnout of Obama and McCain voters and b) no changes in voter preference, the Democrats would win all six elections (see below). But since the GOP won four elections, there had to be a higher turnout rate of McCain voters than Obama voters and/or a net defection of Obama voters to the GOP. It’s simple math.

  In the first set of calculations, we reasonably assume that a) 60% of McCain voters turned out in the recalls and b) there were zero net defections (Democrats won 95% of returning Obama voters and the GOP won 95% of returning McCain voters). In order to match the average recorded vote, the average Obama turnout had to be 45% (75% of the GOP turnout).

  In the second set, we assume that a) 60% of McCain AND Obama voters turned out in the recalls and the GOP won 95% of returning McCain voters, but b) there were net defections of Obama voters to the GOP. In order to match the average recorded vote, the average Democratic share of Obama voters was 83%. The two sets of scenarios are implausible.

  In District 2, if 60% of McCain voters turned out, then just 33% of Obama voters turned out (assuming zero net defection of Obama and McCain voters).

Assuming equal 60% turnout of Obama and McCain voters, there was a massive net 25% defection of Democrats from Obama to McCain.

  In District 8, if 60% of McCain voters turned out, then just 47% of Obama voters turned out (assuming zero net defection).

Assuming equal 60% turnout, there was a 10% net defection of Democrats from Obama to McCain.

Assuming equal turnout rates, Pasch won the election.

  District 18 was won by King, the Democrat. The required Obama 58% turnout nearly matched the 60% assumed for the GOP%. There was a tiny 1% net defection to McCain. Both results are very plausible. It is not surprising that the Democrats won the seat.

  District 32 was won by the Democrats. Obama had 61% so it would have raised eyebrows if the Democrats lost. The 47% Obama turnout required to match the Democratic 55.4% vote share seems low. The 8% net defection to McCain is higher than one would expect. Therefore, the Democrat Shilling probably did better than her recorded margin.

  Sensitivity Analysis

It is instructive to determine the impact (i.e. sensitivity) of changes in percentage voter turnout, voter preference and election fraud (vote switching).

The tables below display the number of Democratic recall victories over a range of assumptions for each of the three parameters.Obama won all six districts in 2008. Therefore assuming a) an equal percentage turnout of Obama and McCain voters in the recalls and b) no changes in voter preference, the Democrats would win all six elections (see below). But the GOP won four. Therefore there had to be a higher turnout rate of McCain voters than Obama voters and/or a net defection of Obama voters to the GOP. It’s simple math.

This is an example of the minimum Obama voter turnout and maximum voter defection that the Democrats needed to win all six elections:

a) Obama voter turnout (60%) had to at least match McCain turnout.

b) Democrats captured at least 93% of Obama voters and 5% of McCain voters. (net 2% defection)

  The Democrats needed an average 52.3% vote share to win all six districts. .

By comparison, Obama had a 53.7% two party-share in the six districts.

.                       2008                True Share       Turnout                                   Mix                  Dem                GOP

                        Obama             53.09%            60.00%            Obama             53.78%            93.00%            7.00%

                        McCain           45.62%            60.00%            McCain           46.22%            5.00%              95.00%

                                                                                                                        Total               52.33%           47.67%

                                                                                               

            Dem Share      Democratic Share of Obama                           McCain                       Obama Turnout          

            of McCain       91%                 93%                 95%                 Turnout           58%                 60%                 62%

                                                Democratic Share                                                                    Democratic Share                   

            7%                   52.18%            53.25%            54.33%            58%                 52.33%            53.07%            53.78%

            5%                   51.25%            52.33%           53.40%            60%                 51.59%            52.33%            53.05%

            3%                   50.33%            51.40%            52.48%            62%                 50.87%            51.61%            52.33%

District 8

Turnout required to force a match to the recorded vote (assuming net zero defection)

2008                Recorded        Turnout                       Mix                  Pasche             Darling

Obama             51.51%            47%                            45.92%            95%                 5%

McCain           47.52%            60%                             54.08%            5%                   95%

                                                Total                           100%              46.33%           53.67%

District 8

Assumption: equal 60% Obama and McCain voter turnout and zero net defection

2008                Recorded        Turnout                       Mix                  Pasche             Darling

Obama             51.51%            60%                            52.01%            95%                 5%

McCain           47.52%            60%                             47.99%            5%                   95%

                                                Total                           100%              51.81%           48.19

                                                           

                                                                                                            Zero Net Defection                 Equal 60% Turnout

                                                                                                            McCain 60% Turnout             GOP 95% McCain

                                                                                   

                                    2011 Senate Recorded Vote                                       Required to Match Recorded Vote  

District Obama            Dem                GOP                Margin                         Obama Turnout           Dem % of Obama

2          52.45%            39.57%            60.43%            -20.86%                                   33%                 70%

8          51.51%            46.35%            53.65%            -7.30%                                     47%                 85%

10        50.30%            42.35%            57.65%            -15.30%                                   41%                 78%

14        51.93%            47.85%            52.15%            -4.30%                                     49%                 86%

18        51.41%            51.13%            48.87%            2.26%                                      58%                 94%

32        60.92%            55.40%            44.60%            10.80%                                    47%                 87%

                                                                                   

All       53.09%            47.11%            52.89%            -5.78%                                     46%                 83%

Democrats win all 6 elections assuming equal voter turnout and zero net defection.

District Dem               GOP   

2          52.83%            47.17%

8          51.81%            48.19%

10        51.03%            48.97%

14        52.34%            47.66%

18        51.83%            48.17%

32        60.59%            39.41%

           

All       53.41%            46.59%

Sensitivity Analysis

 Assumptions:                                                

Obama True Vote Share = Recorded + 1.5%

Equal Obama and McCain returning voter turnout rate                                                

Democrats win 5% of returning McCain voters                                                   

                                                           

Vote                Democratic Share of Obama voters                           

Switch             89%     90%     91%     92%     93%     94%     95%

                        Democratic Election Wins                             

0%                   3          5          6          6          6          6          6

1%                   2          3          5          5          6          6          6

2%                   1          1          2          3          5          5          6

3%                   1          1          1          1          2          5          5

3D Sensitivity Analysis                                      

Assumptions:

Obama True Vote Share = Recorded + 1.5%

Dem 5% share of McCain; McCain 50% turnout                                                

                                                                                                           

                                                                                                           

Vote Switch                            0%                                           3%                                           6%      

                                                                                                           

Obama Turnout           46%     48%     50%                 48%     50%     52%                 54%     56%     58%

                                                                                                           

Dem % Obama                                                            Democratic wins                                

95%                             6          6          6                      3          5          6                      2          5          6

93%                             5          6          6                      1          2          5                      1          2          5

91%                             2          5          6                      1          1          2                      1          1          1

2008                Recorded Votes                                                         Recorded Vote Share                       

Dist     Obama            McCain          Other  Total               Obama            McCain          Other

2          46,760             41,223             1,174   89,157             52.45%            46.24%            1.32%

8          52,372             48,315             990      101,677           51.51%            47.52%            0.97%

10        50,996             48,702             1,685   101,383           50.30%            48.04%            1.66%

14        42,806             38,577             1,055   82,438             51.93%            46.80%            1.28%

18        44,306             40,854             1,025   86,185             51.41%            47.40%            1.19%

32        54,645             33,829             1,224   89,698             60.92%            37.71%            1.36%

                                                                                   

            291,885           251,500          7,153 550,538            53.02%           45.68%           1.30%